Who will the next Pope be?

Outcome	Probability	Yes Bid	Yes Ask	24h Change	Volume
Pietro Parolin	0%	0¢	0¢	—	$0	Trade →
Peter Erdö	0%	0¢	0¢	—	$0	Trade →
Luis Antonio Tagle	0%	0¢	0¢	—	$0	Trade →
Matteo Zuppi	0%	0¢	0¢	—	$0	Trade →
Raymond Leo Burke	0%	0¢	0¢	—	$0	Trade →

About This Market

This market asks which individual will be chosen as the next Pope; the identity of the Pope shapes leadership and priorities within the global Catholic Church and affects diplomatic and social agendas worldwide.

By longstanding canon law, a new Pope is selected by the College of Cardinals in a conclave after the papacy becomes vacant through death or resignation. While the conclave procedure is centuries old, recent papal resignations, demographic shifts among cardinals, and Vatican reforms have changed how observers assess who might be electable. Assessments therefore combine institutional rules, current Vatican politics, and broader church trends.

Market prices reflect the collective, time-sensitive judgment of participants about who will be elected next; they move as new information appears (e.g., announcements, health developments, cardinal appointments). Treat prices as a summary of market sentiment at a moment in time rather than a definitive prediction of vote counts.

Key Factors

Whether and when the papacy becomes vacant (death or voluntary resignation) — timing drives the immediate process
Composition of the College of Cardinals at the time of the conclave, including age, nationality, and theological orientation of electors
Recent reforms, public positions, and governance reputation of Vatican leadership that influence electability criteria
Prominence, administrative experience, and perceived pastoral style of leading candidates (curial officials, diocesan bishops, prominent cardinals)
External shocks or crises (health events, scandals, geopolitical developments) that can change priorities among electors or speed up decision-making

Frequently Asked Questions

What event will cause this 'Who will the next Pope be?' market to resolve?

The market resolves when an officially recognized new Pope is publicly announced and has accepted election according to canonical norms; resolution waits for the formal, public declaration that a successor has been chosen.

If the current Pope remains in office for many years, does the market resolve or stay open?

If no successor is chosen, the market remains unresolved until a new Pope is elected and officially announced; continuation of the incumbent does not produce a winning outcome.

How do new appointments to the College of Cardinals affect the likely outcome in this market?

Appointments change the electorate’s makeup and can shift which qualities electors prioritize, altering the perceived chances of different candidates as the new cardinals bring their own regional and theological perspectives.

How do sudden developments like a resignation, death, or major Vatican crisis change market dynamics?

Such events typically trigger rapid reassessment: they set or accelerate the timetable for a conclave, change electors’ priorities (stability vs. reform), and elevate different contenders depending on which skills are seen as needed in the moment.

Which information sources are most useful for following this specific event and assessing outcomes?

Follow official Vatican communications for formal steps and announcements, reputable Catholic-focused news outlets for expert analysis on conclave dynamics, and coverage of cardinal appointments and statements that reveal shifting alliances and priorities among electors.

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About This Market

Key Factors

Frequently Asked Questions