| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pete Buttigieg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wes Moore | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Josh Shapiro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kamala Harris | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Andy Beshear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jon Ossoff | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| J.B. Pritzker | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which Democrat on the event roster will be the first to be publicly listed as having announced a presidential campaign. Early announcements can shape fundraising, media attention, endorsements, and the overall dynamics of the primary field.
In modern U.S. presidential politics, candidates use exploratory committees, public statements, launch events, and Federal Election Commission filings as different stages of entry; timing varies by personal strategy and political context. Parties and potential candidates weigh name recognition, fundraising readiness, polling, and the actions of rivals when deciding when to make a formal announcement. Exchanges like this one capture market participants' aggregated expectations about who will move first.
Market prices reflect traders' assessments of who will be listed first and update as news and campaign signals arrive. They are not guarantees but summarize collective expectations given available information and can change rapidly after announcements or new developments.
For this event, being 'listed to announce' means a candidate named among the market outcomes is publicly identified as having launched a presidential campaign according to the market's resolution criteria—typically a verifiable public announcement, campaign launch event, or equivalent official action as determined by the exchange.
The exchange will use verifiable timestamps and its adjudication rules to establish order; the first public, documented announcement time (or the time at which the exchange verifies the announcement) typically determines which listed candidate is considered first.
Outcome additions depend on the platform's market-management rules. Exchanges sometimes add or adjust outcomes before resolution if permitted, so check the market page and announcements for any updates to the outcome roster.
Because this market resolves on the event of a first announcement rather than a fixed date, the market will remain open until the exchange declares a qualifying announcement and resolves the market; the platform will post updates if it sets a formal close or cutoff.
Exploratory committees and soft signals indicate likelihood of a formal run but may not meet the market's resolution standard for a public announcement. FEC filings can be a strong indicator, and an explicit public campaign launch or clear statement of candidacy typically meets announcement criteria—final determination follows the exchange's published rules.