| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Newhouse | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jerrod Sessler | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Amanda McKinney | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Duresky | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wesley Meier | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate(s) will advance from Washington’s 4th Congressional District primary to the general election; the outcome determines the final ballot choices and signals local voter preferences ahead of the general election.
Washington uses a statewide top-two primary in which all candidates appear on one ballot and the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party. WA-04 covers much of central Washington and has historically leaned conservative, so intra-party contests, candidate field composition, and turnout patterns often drive the primary outcome.
Market prices represent the collective, real-time expectations of traders about who will finish in the top two; use them alongside polls, fundraising, endorsements, and local reporting as indicators rather than definitive predictions.
This market resolves based on the official primary result for WA-04 as defined in the market rules; typically that means after the Washington Secretary of State posts certified primary results. Check the specific market page for exact resolution language and timing.
Two candidates advance to the general election under Washington’s top-two primary system, regardless of party affiliation.
If a candidate withdraws or is disqualified before ballots are finalized, they may be removed and the market could update; if they remain on the ballot but stop campaigning, votes for them still count and traders typically adjust prices to reflect changed dynamics. Consult the market comments and rules for any official adjustments.
Watch late-breaking endorsements, major ad buys, turnout reports from precincts within WA-04, candidate debate performances, and any legal or ballot-access news that could change who appears or competes effectively in the race.
Historically, WA-04’s more conservative electorate means Republican-leaning candidates often perform strongly, but primaries can hinge on which factions turn out and whether the field fragments—making primary maneuvering and base mobilization especially important.