| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Valadao | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chris Mathys | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rudy Salas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Randy Villegas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jasmeet Bains | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Eric Garcia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will finish in the top two in the California 22nd Congressional District primary, determining who advances to the general election. It matters because the top-two result shapes the general election choices and can signal shifting local political dynamics.
California uses a nonpartisan top-two primary for U.S. House seats: the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election. The CA-22 race can be affected by incumbency, open-seat dynamics, and how a multi-candidate field splits votes among similar constituencies.
Market prices reflect aggregated public information and expectations about which two candidates will finish first and second on primary night and after official counts. Use prices as one input among reporting, polls, and campaign developments rather than definitive forecasts.
The market's close is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement will follow the market rules and official election results as reported by California election authorities—check the event page for the precise settlement trigger and any certification rules.
Two candidates advance: California's top-two primary advances the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, to the general election.
Yes. Under California's top-two system, it is possible for two candidates from the same party to finish in the top two and advance to the general election.
Watch localized turnout (mail vs. election-day voters), district demographics, key endorsements from local leaders, candidate field consolidation or withdrawals, and any district-specific policy issues or events that mobilize particular voter blocs.
Markets typically react to withdrawals and endorsements as new information; if a candidate withdraws after ballots are printed their name may still receive votes, which can change outcomes. Late endorsements can shift fundraising and GOTV capacity, prompting market price adjustments.