| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy Pelosi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Scott Wiener | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Saikat Chakrabarti | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Christine Pelosi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| David Ganezer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Connie Chan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| London Breed | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Haney | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marie Hurabiell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate(s) will advance out of the California 11th congressional district primary; it matters because the primary determines who appears on the general election ballot and shapes the competitive dynamics for the seat.
California uses a top-two primary system in most federal and state races: the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party. Local demographics, incumbent strength, and the size and composition of the candidate field have historically shaped outcomes in CA-11 primaries, and mail-in/early voting patterns can stretch the counting period.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about which candidates will finish in the top two; prices change as new information arrives (polling, early returns, endorsements, turnout updates) and should be read as a reflection of current market sentiment rather than a fixed prediction.
Under California's top-two primary system, two candidates advance to the general election; this market focuses on which individual candidates secure those top-two slots.
The eight outcomes correspond to the specific individuals listed on the market as potential advancees; each outcome represents that particular candidate finishing among the top two in the official primary results.
The market will resolve after official election results are certified for the primary; resolution is based on the certified vote totals identifying the two candidates who advance, including any post-election changes from recounts or certification actions.
Late-arriving mail and provisional ballots can change vote totals during the count and therefore move market prices; because California often counts many ballots after Election Day, the apparent leader in early returns can shift before certification.
Key movers include official early vote and precinct returns, changes in turnout trends, new polling releases specific to CA-11, major endorsements, fundraising updates, and any legal or eligibility developments affecting candidates.