| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Click Bishop | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Edna DeVries | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bernadette Wilson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Adam Crum | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Treg Taylor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tom Begich | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mary Peltola | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dave Bronson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shelley Hughes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Heilala | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matthew Claman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lisa Murkowski | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market trades on which individual candidates will finish among the top four in Alaska’s nonpartisan primary for governor, determining who advances to the general election. The top-four lineup matters because it sets the pool for the general election’s ranked-choice contest and influences campaign strategy and voter choice dynamics.
Alaska uses a nonpartisan top-four primary followed by a ranked-choice general election, a system adopted statewide in recent years that changed how candidates compete and how voters strategize. In this environment, name recognition, coalitions across party lines, and vote fragmentation among many entrants have become more consequential than in traditional partisan primaries.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of traders and update as new information arrives; they indicate relative expectations rather than certainties. Use price movements as a real-time signal of shifting odds driven by polls, news, and campaign events, not as a guaranteed forecast.
The top four vote-getters in the nonpartisan primary advance to the general election, which will be decided by ranked-choice voting.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific named gubernatorial candidate in the market; the market resolves based on which named candidates finish among the top four in the official certified primary results.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the platform; KALSHI typically sets a close aligned with the primary or official reporting timeline, so check the market page for the real-time close time and the event rules for resolution procedures.
Candidates often try to broaden appeal to capture one of four slots rather than win a partisan plurality, and voters may consider crossover support or strategic preferences knowing the general election will be ranked-choice among the top four.
Late polls, major endorsements, significant fundraising or advertising pushes, candidate withdrawals or scandals, and early turnout reports or absentee ballot trends specific to Alaska tend to drive price movements in this market.