| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalo Atomics | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Antares Nuclear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Atomic Alchemy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Deep Fission | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Last Energy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Oklo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Natura Resources | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Radiant Industries | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Terrestrial Energy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Valar Atomics | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which commercial nuclear power companies will achieve reactor criticality before Aug 2026. It matters because first criticality is a clear technical milestone that signals progress toward operation, revenue, and regulatory completion for projects and companies.
New-build and advanced reactor projects worldwide have varied timelines driven by licensing, construction complexity, and supply chains; historically many projects experience multi-year delays between construction start and first criticality. Recent industry trends include renewed investment in large reactors, demonstration projects for SMRs and advanced designs, and heightened regulatory scrutiny that can accelerate or postpone first criticality milestones.
Market prices on this event summarize traders’ aggregated expectations about which named companies will see a reactor reach sustained criticality by the cutoff. Prices update as verifiable milestones (licenses, fuel load, regulator statements, first criticality) are announced and as risk factors change.
It means a reactor unit operated by the named company reaches a sustained, controlled nuclear chain reaction (first criticality) as reported by the operator or confirmed by the national regulator; subcritical tests do not qualify.
Outcomes correspond to the specific company names listed on the market; whether a subsidiary or special-purpose vehicle counts depends on how that entity is named in the event outcomes, so check the event’s outcome list for exact legal names.
Official operator announcements, national regulator confirmations, published commissioning reports, or grid-operator synchronization notices are the primary evidence that market participants and the platform use to update beliefs and resolve outcomes.
Yes — unless the event wording requires multiple units, the usual interpretation is that one reactor unit reaching sustained criticality under a named company’s ownership or operation satisfies inclusion for that company.
Delays can arise from licensing reviews, safety tests, component delivery issues, and workforce constraints; because first criticality typically follows a sequence of time-consuming tests and approvals, schedule slips at any stage can push a project past the Aug 2026 cutoff.