| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Russia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| India | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| China | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| European Space Agency | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon, a milestone that signals major advances in national space capabilities, science, and geopolitical standing.
Human lunar landings last occurred in the Apollo era; since then, several national programs and commercial partnerships have announced plans to return people to lunar orbit and the surface. Multiple countries maintain active programs, test campaigns, and international agreements that could produce the next crewed lunar mission, but schedules remain fluid due to technical, budgetary, and political risks.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about which country is most likely to achieve the defined milestone first and change as new technical and political information arrives; they are not fixed forecasts and will update with new evidence and announcements.
Settlement depends on the event's official rules on the platform; commonly the phrase refers to a government-backed mission that results in humans reaching the lunar environment as specified by the contract (for example, a crewed lunar surface landing or a crewed mission to lunar orbit), and the platform will credit the country specified by its published settlement criteria.
Platforms vary, but resolution usually attributes the mission to the sponsoring nation or the lead governmental agency; some markets instead use the country of registration or launch—check the event's settlement rules to see how mixed public–private missions are credited.
Many markets resolve to a single country and follow the lead-nation designation or the official sponsoring agency; if the event permits multiple outcomes, the published rules should state how co-sponsorship or joint flags are treated—review the event's resolution policy.
Key movers include official launch manifests and dates, successful uncrewed lander or orbital tests, national budget appropriations or legislative approvals for crewed lunar programs, crew assignment announcements, and major international partnership agreements or export-control decisions.
Delays and failures typically push expected timelines out and can shift advantage to rivals with functioning hardware and funding; political leadership changes or budget cuts can deprioritize programs, while new funding or successful tests can materially accelerate a country's path to a crewed lunar mission.