| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Anthropic | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Meta | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nvidia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| xAI | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mistral | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Deepseek | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alibaba | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 01A1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Zhipu AI | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| OpenAI | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved | |
| Baidu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Z.ai | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Moonshot AI | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ByteDance | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year on specified leaderboards; it matters because top-ranked models signal research leadership, commercial advantage, and influence on standards and adoption.
The contest sits within an accelerating AI race where compute, data, and engineering scale determine leaderboard outcomes; both large incumbents and well-funded startups compete via proprietary models, open-source releases, partnerships, and acquisitions. This market (hosted on KALSHI) lists 14 outcomes and has attracted significant trading activity; the market close is TBD, so resolution timing and the exact benchmarks used are important to check on the event page.
Market odds aggregate participants' judgments about which companies are most likely to place highly on the designated leaderboards and update as new information arrives. Treat prices as a dynamic summary of market expectations constrained by the event's stated resolution criteria.
Resolution depends on the specific benchmarks and leaderboards named in the market rules; consult the event page for the precise sources and cutoffs used to determine which models count as 'top-ranked.' If language is ambiguous, the market's published resolution procedure explains how ties or unclear cases are handled.
Typically 'this year' refers to the calendar year, but the exact evaluation window and resolution date are set by the market's rules. Because the market close is listed as TBD, check the KALSHI event page or official resolution text for the definitive cutoff and evaluation timing.
The market was created with 14 specified company outcomes; new companies cannot be added after market creation. The full list of companies appears on the event page—only those listed are eligible for resolution in this market.
New benchmarks or changes to evaluation metrics can change perceptions about which models are 'top-ranked' and lead participants to revise positions. The impact on final resolution depends on whether those benchmarks are among the sources the market cites; review the market's resolution criteria to see which leaderboards will be used.
Acquisitions can rapidly enhance a company's capabilities and open-sourcing can increase adoption and scrutiny—both can materially affect whether a company reaches top-ranked status. Market participants will price such events as they occur, but official resolution still depends on model rankings on the designated leaderboards by the market's cutoff.