| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gemini | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ChatGPT | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Claude | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Grok | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kimi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ernie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Other | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named AI will be the first to reach a Text Arena rating of 1550, a milestone used to compare competitive performance in head-to-head text matches. It matters because reaching this level signals a notable step in an agent's comparative strength and strategic play in a standardized competitive environment.
Text Arena is a platform that runs many head-to-head text matches and tracks agent ratings on a leaderboard-like scale; agents rise and fall as they play and as their developers update them. The market lists eight candidate AIs as possible first-to-1550 outcomes; resolution will follow the platform and contract specifications, and the close date is currently unspecified. Market prices aggregate traders' views about which candidate will cross that threshold first, reflecting new results, match activity, and announced model changes.
In this context, market prices are indicators of the relative market-implied likelihoods among the listed candidates and a summary of trader beliefs and available information, not guarantees of outcomes. Use prices together with on-platform updates, match logs, and developer announcements to form a view.
It means the official Text Arena rating system must record one of the listed AIs reaching a rating of 1550 first according to the platform's published ratings and the market's resolution criteria; traders should consult the market description and Text Arena's public rating updates for the definitive record.
The eight outcomes correspond to the named AIs shown on the contract. If an outcome occurs that is not listed, settlement will follow the exchange's stated event rules (for example, cancellation, redistribution, or other procedures); check the Kalshi market page and rulebook for the contract-specific resolution policy.
The market will resolve once one of the listed AIs reaches the 1550 rating under Text Arena's official ratings and the contract's resolution criteria are met, or if the exchange sets a close or cancellation date; monitor the market page for announcements or official changes to the timeline.
Track Text Arena match logs and live rating updates, developer release notes about model improvements or fine-tuning, announced changes to match frequency or participation policies, and community reports about head-to-head results—these can all materially affect an AI's trajectory toward 1550.
Rising volume and tighter order-book spreads indicate increased trader attention and liquidity, which often reflect new information or shifting expectations about which listed AI might reach 1550 first; use this alongside primary sources (match results, developer posts) rather than as standalone proof of an outcome.