| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Anthropic | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alibaba | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| xAI | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| DeepSeek | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → | |
| Baidu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Z.ai | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Moonshot AI | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026, a question that matters because coding models influence developer productivity, software economics, and competitive dynamics among AI firms.
Coding models have rapidly advanced since early large-language-model code assistants appeared, with multiple major firms and startups investing heavily in model scale, specialized training data, and developer tooling. Progress is judged both by benchmark scores (e.g., code-generation benchmarks) and real-world signals like integrations, latency/cost, and developer adoption, so the competitive landscape can shift quickly through technical improvements, partnerships, or product launches.
Market prices on this event aggregate trader expectations about which company will meet the market's resolution criteria by the end of 2026; they should be interpreted as a real-time collective assessment that responds to news, benchmarks, and adoption data rather than as fixed technical evaluations.
Resolution will follow the market's official contract language on the event page; that language specifies whether adjudication is based on named benchmarks, documented public evaluations, or an official determination by Kalshi. Traders should read the event's definition and any posted resolution procedures to know what evidence will count.
TBD means Kalshi has not yet published the formal close or trade halt date; the crucial resolution point is the end of 2026, but the exchange will announce any trading close date and relevant cutoffs on the event page prior to closure.
Whether an unlisted company can win depends on the market's outcome structure and resolution rules: many multi-outcome contracts only resolve to the listed options, while some include an 'Other' or allow adjudication based on the contract's stated criteria. Check the event page for how unlisted outcomes are handled.
Traders typically react to major benchmark releases, public leaderboards, large-scale product integrations (e.g., IDE plugins or cloud service adoption), third-party evaluations of correctness and hallucination rates, and high-profile business moves such as partnerships, open-source releases, or acquisitions.
Trading volume indicates liquidity and information flow: higher volume generally supports more reliable price discovery and easier order execution, while lower volume can make prices more sensitive to single trades or news. Nonetheless, volume does not guarantee accuracy and the market remains responsive to new technical results and announcements.