| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2025 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks when OpenAI will achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI), aggregating trader expectations about the timing of a major technological milestone with wide economic and societal implications.
AGI refers to systems with broadly human-like general cognitive abilities rather than narrow, task-specific performance. OpenAI is one of the most prominent organizations working on large-scale AI systems, and public progress, demonstrations, and debate about definitions have driven repeated reassessments of likely timelines. Uncertainty stems from both technical unknowns and debates over what evidence should count as AGI.
Market prices reflect the collective judgments of participants about which outcome will meet the event's official resolution criteria and are updated as new information arrives; they are not guarantees and can change with new evidence or reinterpretation of that evidence.
Each outcome corresponds to the mutually exclusive time window or resolution condition specified on the event page; when the market resolves, the outcome that matches the event's published resolution criteria will be declared the winner.
Settlement follows the platform's official resolution rules for this event: KALSHI will apply the definition, evidence standards, and decision procedures posted on the event page, so traders should consult those rules for the precise threshold and proof requirements.
Significant peer-reviewed papers, reproducible benchmark results showing broad generalization, public product demonstrations that exhibit wide-ranging autonomous problem solving, changes in OpenAI's disclosed compute or staffing, and corroborating assessments by independent experts or institutions are all the kinds of information that can shift market views.
Such actions can materially affect the timing of public demonstrations or deployments and therefore influence market prices, but they do not change the event's settlement rules: the final resolution depends on whether the evidence meets the event's predefined criteria regardless of the reasons for delays or accelerations.
Treat the market as a real-time aggregation of diverse expectations and combine it with technical literature, expert commentary, OpenAI's public disclosures, independent benchmark results, and trends in compute and investment to form a rounded assessment; the market is one informative input rather than definitive proof.