| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-opus-4-6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| claude-opus-4-6-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3-pro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| grok-4.20-beta1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3-flash | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| dola-seed-2.0-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ernie-5.0-0110 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| kimi-k2.5-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gpt-5.2-chat-latest-20260210 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named AI model will be judged the 'top' model during the current month; it matters because it aggregates real-time beliefs about short-term leadership in the AI model landscape and can signal momentum to developers, product teams, and investors.
AI leadership shifts quickly as companies and open-source projects push new model versions, integrations, benchmark results, pricing changes, and commercial deals. A monthly horizon emphasizes transient advantages — a model can rise to the top on the back of a high-profile release, a major integration into a popular app, or widely cited benchmark wins. Historical monthly outcomes tend to reflect immediate product and adoption changes rather than long-term structural shifts.
Odds in this market are a live summary of traders' expectations about which named model will be top this month; they update as news and trades arrive and should be read as a near-term signal that complements technical analysis and qualitative information.
Resolution criteria are set by the event description on KALSHI; participants should read the market's official rules to see the exact metric or source used to determine which named model is considered 'top' for the month.
The event currently lists the close time as TBD; KALSHI will publish the official close and resolution schedule on the event page, and resolution typically occurs after the month closes according to the platform's stated rules.
The ten outcomes correspond to the specific options listed on the KALSHI market page; check that list for exact model names and whether any outcomes represent categories like 'other' or aggregated options.
Major mid-month updates are often incorporated quickly into market prices as traders react; because this is a short-horizon market, a significant release, demonstrated performance improvement, or major integration can materially shift which outcome traders favor.
Price movement typically comes from a mix of retail traders, informed speculators, market makers, and sometimes institutional participants or insiders reacting to product announcements, benchmarks, or adoption metrics; watch for spikes in volume, correlated news events, and changes in liquidity that can drive rapid re-pricing.