| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, 15%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yes, 12-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yes, 9-12% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yes, 6-9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yes, 3-6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yes, 0-3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| No, 0-3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| No, 3%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which margin-of-victory band the official result of the Virginia redistricting referendum will fall into. It matters because the size of the victory can shape post-election narratives, legal risk, and political momentum around redistricting rules.
The market is tied to a Virginia ballot referendum on redistricting policy; such referenda have previously altered who draws legislative maps and how lines are drawn. The referendum outcome can affect future district boundaries, partisan control incentives, and potential litigation over map legality. Because timing and turnout vary by cycle, margins on referendum questions have historically ranged from decisive to razor-thin depending on mobilization and campaign intensity.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about which margin band will be the official result; they move as new information—polling, turnout, legal developments—arrives. Use prices to gauge market sentiment, but always cross-check with official certified results for final determination.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a distinct margin-of-victory range (measured in percentage points) as listed on the market page; consult the market interface for the precise band boundaries and labels.
Resolution follows the market's posted rules and uses the official certified margin reported by Virginia election authorities; the market's close time is listed on the trading page or will be set before trading ends, and may be updated to reflect the official certification timeline.
Margin of victory is defined as the difference in vote share between the 'Yes' and 'No' options, measured in percentage points based on the final certified vote totals and then assigned to the appropriate outcome band per the market's specifications.
The market will rely on the official certified results published by Virginia's election authorities (e.g., the Virginia State Board of Elections) or another source specified in the market's resolution rules; check the market page for the exact source referenced.
New public polling focused on the referendum, changes in turnout projections, major endorsements or high-profile campaigning, large shifts in advertising or grassroots efforts, and court rulings or news about ballot counting and certification can all materially shift market prices.