| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Lyman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Celeste Maloy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market trades on who will be the Republican nominee for Utah's 3rd Congressional District (UT-03). The nominee determines who will represent the GOP on the general election ballot and can shape the seat's competitiveness and party strategy.
Utah's 3rd District has been decided through GOP nominating processes that include party conventions and primary ballots; candidates can advance via delegate support or other qualification routes. Local party organization, endorsements, and candidate quality have historically mattered more than national trends in determining the nominee in many Utah Republican contests.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of traders based on available information and will move as new developments (endorsements, fundraising, polling, procedural rulings) occur. Use the market as a continuously updated signal of the field rather than a fixed forecast.
It will settle on which individual is officially recognized as the Republican nominee for Utah's 3rd Congressional District according to the exchange's settlement rules and the state's certified nomination result (primary or convention outcome).
The market's close/settlement date is listed as TBD; the exchange will set a final close date and typically waits for the official certification of the nomination through the state's processes before settling.
The outcome could be decided at the party convention, in a primary election, or by a combination of convention results and signature-qualified primary access, depending on which candidates qualify and Utah GOP rules in effect for this cycle.
Key developments include major endorsements (statewide or county-level), convention delegate tallies, fundraising reports, polling releases, candidate withdrawals or legal rulings on ballot access, and any coordinated outside spending or organizing efforts.
National committees and outside groups can influence the race through money, independent advertising, and organizational support, but local delegate dynamics, endorsements, and candidate ground operations often play a decisive role in Utah Republican nominations.