| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grants license | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether a U.S. authority will issue an official license that enables construction and operation of a previously unlicensed nuclear reactor before 2027. The outcome matters for investors, regulators, utilities, and climate/energy policy because a new license would signal progress in U.S. nuclear deployment timelines.
Commercial nuclear reactors in the United States require regulatory approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) or other applicable licensing actions; the NRC’s multi-step review process and the long lead times for plant design, manufacturing, financing, and siting mean approvals are relatively rare and consequential. In recent years there has been renewed industry interest in advanced reactors and small modular reactors (SMRs), plus federal funding and policy initiatives that can accelerate or support applications, but applicants still face technical reviews, financing hurdles, and potential legal or public-opposition delays.
Market odds aggregate public information and participant expectations about the likelihood of a license being granted before the cutoff date; they update as new filings, NRC actions, funding decisions, or legal developments occur. Treat market prices as a continuously updating signal, not a deterministic prediction or guarantee.
The market refers to an official regulatory license or authorization that enables a previously unlicensed reactor unit to proceed toward construction and operation (for example a combined construction-and-operating license or an equivalent NRC authorization). Design certifications or preliminary acceptance letters alone may not meet the contract’s settlement criteria — check the market’s official contract text for the definitive definition.
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is the primary federal authority that issues licenses for commercial nuclear reactor construction and operation; other agencies may provide funding or permits, but the NRC’s licensing action is typically decisive for this event’s outcome.
Settlement requires a license to be issued prior to the market’s specified cutoff date. Because wording can vary across contracts, consult the event’s official rules to determine whether the cutoff means the end of a calendar year, the start of 2027, or a specific timestamp used by the market operator.
No — amendments or renewals that apply to previously licensed reactor units or uprates of existing facilities are not the same as issuing a license for a newly authorized reactor unit; this event concerns licenses that authorize a reactor unit that was not previously licensed. Again, check the market’s contract text for precise settlement definitions.
Key movers include submission of a complete application and NRC acceptance for review, NRC staff issuing major safety or environmental findings, a final NRC licensing decision, binding utility construction commitments supported by financing, major federal funding awards or loan guarantees, and court rulings that clear or block licensing actions.