| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Ayers | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jon Bonck | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shelly DeZevallos | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Craig Goralski | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Barrett McNabb | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Carmen María Montiel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Pratt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Larry Rubin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jennifer Sundt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jeff Yuna | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will become the Republican nominee for Texas's 38th Congressional District. The nominee determines who represents the party on the general-election ballot and influences campaign dynamics in the district.
The Republican nominee will be selected through Texas's party primary process, which can include a runoff if no candidate receives the required threshold. Local demographics, recent redistricting and the timing of candidate filings shape the field and strategic choices by campaigns and party organizations.
Market prices reflect the aggregated views of traders and update as new information arrives; they indicate the market’s current assessment of who is most likely to be the official nominee but are not guarantees.
The market close is listed as TBD; settlement will follow the official determination of the Republican nominee for TX-38 after the relevant primary and any runoff have concluded and results are certified. Check the market page and official election authorities for timing updates.
If the primary advances to a runoff, the market will settle to whichever individual is the officially certified nominee after the runoff and final certification. Expect settlement to wait until the nomination is formally confirmed.
Outcomes correspond to the specific candidates named when the market was created (and any additional options the platform offers). The market settles to the person who becomes the officially certified Republican nominee; write-ins, late entrants, or substitutions are handled according to the platform’s listing and settlement rules.
District-level primary polls, fundraising reports, major endorsements, candidate withdrawals, turnout signals from early voting or party events, and legal or redistricting news are the most common drivers of price movement.
Prioritize local dynamics—name recognition in the district, neighborhood-level outreach, and county-level turnout—because primaries are highly local. Use national trends and party investment as secondary signals of resource allocation and broader momentum.