| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melissa McDonough | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Marvalette Hunter | 31% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $572 | Trade → |
| Theresa Courts | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Democratic nominee for Texas’s 38th Congressional District. It matters because the nominee will shape the general election contest and signal party strength and strategy in this district.
TX-38 is a recently numbered/contested House district in Texas created under recent redistricting cycles; contests for new or reconfigured districts often attract multiple Democratic hopefuls and focused local attention. Primary dynamics, candidate recruitment, and local turnout patterns will determine who emerges as the nominee, with potential for a runoff if no candidate clears the state’s threshold.
Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s collective expectation about which named outcome will occur, and they update as new information arrives (endorsements, polling, withdrawals, official results). They are indicators of market expectations, not guarantees or static measurements of support.
Resolution timing is listed as TBD on the market; the market will typically resolve once an official Democratic nominee is declared or certified by the relevant election authority or party body, including outcomes determined by primary or runoff results.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate or nominated result named in the market (or occasionally an 'other'/contested outcome); check the market’s outcome labels on the trading page to see which candidate each option represents.
If no candidate wins the primary outright and a runoff is required, the market may continue trading until the runoff produces an official nominee; runoffs can shift expectations substantially if dynamics between the top two change between rounds.
Markets like this rely on official announcements and certified election results from state or county election authorities and party certification notices; check the market rules for the exact resolution sources used by the platform.
Use the market as a real-time indicator of how informed traders view the race relative to other information sources—combine it with polling, fundraising, endorsements, and on-the-ground reporting to form a fuller picture rather than relying on the market alone.