| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Rogers | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Rhonda Hart | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $95 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the official Democratic nominee for Texas's 36th Congressional District. The outcome matters because the nominee determines who will represent the party on the general-election ballot and shapes local and national strategic calculations.
TX-36 is a South Texas congressional district with recent electoral volatility; demographic trends, turnout patterns, and local issues have made nominations and general elections competitive in recent cycles. Texas nominations are typically decided in a primary (and, if no candidate wins a majority, a subsequent runoff) with certification by state and county election authorities determining the official nominee.
Prediction market prices reflect traders' collective assessment of which person will be certified as the Democratic nominee, not an endorsement of electability in the general election. Market values can move quickly around new information such as filings, withdrawals, endorsements, fundraising, or official certification actions.
It will resolve based on the individual who is officially certified as the Democratic nominee for Texas's 36th Congressional District by the appropriate election authorities (state/counties) for the relevant election cycle.
If no candidate wins a majority and the district moves to a runoff, the market will remain unsettled until the runoff produces a certified nominee; traders should expect increased volatility around runoff results and certification dates.
The market settles to the officially certified nominee regardless of whether the nomination comes via uncontested filing, a withdrawal followed by party selection, or a replacement; unofficial or interim candidates do not affect settlement until certification.
Major developments include high-profile endorsements, significant fundraising jumps, formal candidate withdrawals or filings, local polling releases, and official certification or legal rulings affecting the ballot.
No — this market only reflects who will be the Democratic nominee on the ballot; general-election prospects depend on the nominee, the Republican nominee, turnout, broader political environment, and district-specific dynamics.