| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Johnson, ≥10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Julie Johnson, 5-10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Julie Johnson, 0-5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Colin Allred, 0-5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Colin Allred, 5-10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Colin Allred, 10-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Colin Allred, 15-20% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Colin Allred, 20-25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Colin Allred, ≥25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the margin of victory in the Democratic primary runoff for Texas's 33rd Congressional District. It serves as an indicator of voter sentiment and the relative strength of competing candidates within the party base.
TX-33 is a reliably Democratic district covering portions of Dallas and Tarrant counties. Runoff elections are often triggered when no candidate secures an absolute majority in the initial primary, frequently resulting in lower turnout that amplifies the influence of organized local political blocs.
Market sentiment reflects collective expectations regarding the intensity of the contest and the eventual spread between the top two candidates.
The margin is calculated as the difference in the raw vote totals between the first-place and second-place candidates in the official final results.
The market remains contingent on the official ballot results as certified by the Texas Secretary of State.
Runoffs typically feature a substantial drop in participation, making the outcome highly dependent on which campaign's base is more motivated to return to the polls.
The district spans diverse urban and suburban areas; concentrated support in high-turnout precincts within either Dallas or Fort Worth can heavily skew the final percentage split.
Official election results are reported by the Texas Secretary of State and the local county elections departments following the canvassing process.