| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Early | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Stuart Whitlow | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $436 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Democratic nominee for Texas's 31st Congressional District for the upcoming general election. The nominee determines who will appear on the general-election ballot as the Democratic challenger and shapes party strategy and resource allocation in the district.
TX-31 covers suburbs and exurbs in central Texas that have seen population growth and changing demographics in recent cycles, making local races more dynamic than in the past. The district has produced competitive contests at times; candidate quality, turnout in the Democratic primary and any runoffs, and local organizing all influence who becomes the nominee.
Market prices aggregate public information and trader expectations about who will become the official Democratic nominee for TX-31; price movements reflect new facts (filings, vote counts, endorsements) but are not guarantees of final outcomes.
The market resolves to the individual who is officially designated as the Democratic nominee for Texas's 31st Congressional District on the general-election ballot according to Texas election authorities and party certification rules.
If a runoff is required, the market will settle after the runoff winner is officially announced and certified according to Texas procedures; timing depends on the state’s canvass and certification schedule.
If a candidate withdraws or is disqualified before official certification, the party’s replacement procedures determine the nominee; if changes occur after certification, resolution follows the official nominee listed by election authorities and the market’s contract rules.
Movers include campaign filings and withdrawals, primary and runoff vote counts, fundraising and advertising reports, local and statewide endorsements, reliable polling, and late-breaking campaign controversies or legal challenges.
No — this market specifically determines which candidate will be the Democratic nominee on the ballot; the general-election outcome is a separate event influenced by different dynamics, including the Republican nominee, turnout, and the broader political environment.