| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Haynes III | 96% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $997 | Trade → |
| Barbara Mallory Caraway | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rodney LaBruce | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which option will be resolved as the Democratic nominee for Texas's 30th congressional district and matters because it provides a real-time aggregation of trader expectations about a key local nomination.
Texas's 30th district is a single congressional seat whose Democratic nominee is typically determined by the party's primary process, party rules, and any qualifying or withdrawal events. Local demographics, candidate recruitment, and the timing of primaries or conventions shape the contest and can affect general-election dynamics in the district.
Market prices represent the collective view of traders about which listed outcome will be resolved as the nominee and can move as new information arrives; they should be read as evolving signals, not fixed forecasts.
Each outcome corresponds to one of the named options shown on the market page; the resolved outcome will be whichever named option the market's official rules designate as the nominee at resolution. Check the market page for the exact labels and any resolution notes.
The market close is listed as TBD; settlement will follow the market's resolution rules, which generally rely on official party certification, primary results, or other authoritative determinations described on the market page. Monitor the market for any updates to the closing or resolution criteria.
Lower traded volume implies less liquidity and that prices may be more sensitive to individual trades, so treat signals as informative but more uncertain than markets with higher participation; check volume trends and additional information sources before drawing strong conclusions.
Key triggers include candidate withdrawals or new entries, major endorsements, campaign finance reports, official candidate certification or disqualification, and any statements from local party authorities about the nomination process.
A withdrawal typically shifts trading as participants reallocate positions toward the remaining outcomes; resolution will depend on the market's official rules and the timing of the withdrawal relative to any qualifying or certification deadlines described on the market page.