| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tano Tijerina | 97% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $100 | Trade → |
| Eileen Day | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $68 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Republican nominee in Texas's 28th district (TX-28). That nominee determines who will appear on the general-election ballot for the Republican Party and shapes competitive dynamics in the district.
Nomination contests in Texas are driven by the primary calendar, which can include a runoff if no candidate reaches the required threshold. Local factors such as recent redistricting, demographic change, and the presence or absence of an incumbent influence how the Republican primary unfolds in TX-28.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time signal of perceived likelihood but should be used alongside polls, official filings, and on-the-ground reporting rather than as definitive predictions.
The market resolves to the candidate officially certified as the Republican nominee for TX-28 by the relevant election authority (including the result of any required runoff) according to the marketplace's resolution rules.
If no close date is listed, resolution typically follows the official certification of the primary (and runoff, if applicable) by Texas election authorities or the exchange's stated resolution trigger; watch official primary and runoff certification timelines.
Yes. If no candidate wins outright in the primary and a runoff is required, the eventual nominee will be determined in that later contest, and market prices can shift significantly between the primary and runoff outcomes.
High-profile endorsements, candidate withdrawals, or consolidation of support can materially change trader expectations and market prices quickly because they alter the competitive landscape and voter signaling.
Use the market to gauge which Republican will face the general election and how contested the nomination is; combine that information with general-election fundamentals—incumbency, district partisanship, fundraising, and turnout—to assess overall competitiveness.