| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cuellar | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Ryan Trevino | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Ricardo Villarreal | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Andrew Vantine | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $451 | Trade → |
This market asks which person will be the Democratic nominee for Texas's TX-28 seat and aggregates trader expectations about that outcome. It matters because the nominee determines the party's candidate for the general election and influences campaign strategy and resource allocation.
TX-28 is a Texas congressional district with a distinct regional electorate; nomination contests there typically reflect local party dynamics, demographic patterns, and turnout behavior. Historical trends in the district, past primary competitiveness, and any recent redistricting can shape how nomination contests play out.
Market odds reflect the collective judgment of traders at a moment in time and update as new information arrives; they are best read as a snapshot of perceived likelihood and relative confidence, not immutable forecasts.
The market resolves on who is officially designated as the Democratic nominee for TX-28 according to the market's stated resolution rules—typically the candidate certified by the state party or election authorities as the nominee after primaries or runoffs.
The market's close or resolution timing is governed by the platform's rules; in practice resolution occurs after the Democratic nomination is officially decided and certified (for example, following primary and any required runoff results).
An incumbent seeking renomination usually concentrates support and can shorten the list of viable challengers, while an open seat typically increases competitiveness, encouraging more entrants and greater price movement as the field develops.
Volume indicates liquidity and trader engagement: higher traded volume suggests more active interest and easier entry/exit, while lower volume can mean less confidence and wider price swings; volume alone doesn't guarantee predictive accuracy.
Key movers include official candidate filings, withdrawals, major endorsements, fundraising reports, statewide or local polling releases, primary or runoff vote counts, legal or ballot-access developments, and changes in district maps or election administration.