| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hatley | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Cloud | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which person will be the Republican nominee for Texas's 27th Congressional District. The nominee determines who appears on the ballot for the Republican Party in the general election, shaping the district's contest and local party strategy.
TX-27 is a U.S. House district whose boundaries and political dynamics have shifted over recent cycles due to redistricting and demographic change. In Texas, nominees are most often decided in party primaries and, if no candidate reaches the required threshold, by a runoff; party procedures or special filings can also affect who appears on the ballot.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about which candidate will be the certified Republican nominee and update as new information arrives; they should be read alongside fundamentals like vote returns, endorsements, and official filings.
The event will resolve based on the official determination of the Republican nominee for TX-27; that typically occurs after primary and any required runoff results are certified by the appropriate election authorities. The market's posted close time is TBD, and any final resolution timing will follow the exchange's stated rules tied to official certification.
The nominee is the individual officially recognized as the Republican Party's candidate for the U.S. House seat in Texas's 27th Congressional District according to the relevant certification or party procedures (for example, after primary/runoff certification or a lawful party selection process).
If no candidate wins the primary outright and a runoff is required, the market will effectively remain unsettled until the runoff result is official and certified; runoffs can change dynamics because they concentrate voter attention and often have different turnout and endorsement patterns.
If a candidate withdraws or is removed before the official certification of the nominee, the competitive landscape shifts and market prices should reflect that new information; the event still resolves to whoever is officially certified as the Republican nominee under state or party rules.
Watch primary and runoff vote returns, county and state certification notices, candidate filing and withdrawal announcements, FEC or state campaign finance reports, major endorsements, local media reporting, debates, and any legal rulings affecting ballot access or district lines.