| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanya Lloyd | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Wayne Raasch | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $112 | Trade → |
| Eustaquio Castro-Mendoza | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12 | Trade → |
This market asks which person will become the Democratic nominee for Texas's 27th Congressional District; it matters because the nominee will represent the party in the general election for a U.S. House seat and can affect the district's partisan dynamics.
TX-27 has a specific primary and possible runoff process under Texas election law; the identity of the Democratic nominee is determined by the party's primary voters (and a runoff if no candidate meets the required threshold). Local political history, recent redistricting, and national attention can shape candidate fields and campaign strategies in this district.
Market prices reflect the aggregated expectations of traders and update as new information (endorsements, filings, fundraising, polls, legal changes) arrives; consider them as a summary of current market sentiment, not official results.
The nominee is decided according to Texas election procedures: the primary and any runoff determine the party nominee, and the market will resolve based on the market's stated resolution criteria and official certification or the exchange's adjudication; check the market page for its close/resolution policy since the market close is listed as TBD.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a specific candidate (or an 'other' outcome if included); the outcome that becomes the official Democratic nominee when the market resolves will be the winning outcome.
A withdrawal typically shifts market interest toward remaining candidates and may prompt outcome adjustments if an exchange removes or replaces an option; a runoff means the final nominee may not be decided until after the runoff date, and markets will reflect evolving expectations through that process.
Track candidate filings and withdrawals, major endorsements, fundraising and independent expenditures, local polling and turnout signals, precinct-level organizing reports, and any legal or ballot-access news that could change who appears on the ballot.
Settlement follows the exchange's published resolution rules, which typically rely on official state certification of the nominee or a clearly documented official source; in contested or delayed situations the exchange may wait for resolution or follow its dispute-adjudication process—refer to the market rules for exact procedures.