| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Gill | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $255 | Trade → |
| Robert Chick | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Republican nominee for Texas's 26th Congressional District. The nominee determines the party’s candidate in the general election and signals intra-party strength and priorities in that district.
Texas's 26th district is a U.S. House seat whose nomination is decided by the Republican primary voters in the district; if no candidate wins a majority under Texas law, the top two advance to a runoff. Local political history, past voting patterns, and the presence or absence of an incumbent shape how competitive the primary becomes.
Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s assessment of who will be the certified nominee based on available information and update as new developments occur. Use prices as a snapshot of market sentiment, while tracking official election and certification events for final resolution.
The market resolves when the official Republican nominee for Texas's 26th Congressional District is certified by the relevant election authorities or as specified by the exchange’s contract rules; if the primary produces a runoff, resolution will follow the runoff outcome or official certification.
Each outcome corresponds to one of the named options shown on the market page; the winning outcome will be the option identified as the officially certified Republican nominee for TX-26 per the exchange’s resolution criteria.
If no candidate wins a majority in the initial primary and a runoff is required under Texas law, the market may remain open and update to reflect the runoff matchup; the final resolution will follow the certified winner of that runoff if it determines the nominee.
Resolution depends on official certification: the exchange will follow state/county certification and its own contract rules to determine which outcome wins; traders should monitor official announcements from election authorities and the market’s terms for guidance.
Monitor the Texas Secretary of State, the county election offices for counties within TX-26, official party communications regarding candidate certification or replacements, and local election reporting; these sources provide the certification documents that determine market resolution.