| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Lineberger | 11% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $929 | Trade → |
| Steven Shook | 96% | 96¢ | 99¢ | — | $457 | Trade → |
This market asks who will be the Democratic nominee for Texas's 26th Congressional District; it matters because the nominee determines the party's contender in the general election and signals local political dynamics.
TX-26 is a U.S. House district whose competitive profile has been shaped by suburban demographics, recent electoral trends, and candidate recruitment. Texas primary timing, demographic change, and local issues often influence both who runs and who ultimately secures the nomination.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and expectations about which candidate will be the certified Democratic nominee; treat them as a real‑time signal that updates with new news, polling, and campaign developments.
It resolves to whichever individual is officially certified as the Democratic nominee for Texas's 26th Congressional District by the relevant election or party authorities for the election cycle covered by the market.
A 'Closes: TBD' label means the market creator or exchange has not set a final trading cutoff; trading remains open until the exchange publishes a close time, and important calendar milestones (filing deadline, primary, runoff) typically drive resolution timing.
Texas requires a majority to avoid a runoff in many primaries; if no candidate gets the required threshold, a runoff extends the nomination timeline and the market may not resolve until after the runoff result is officially determined.
High-impact items include candidate withdrawals or entries, major endorsements, large fundraising hauls or spending, credible polling releases, legal/ballot access rulings, and local developments that change voter sentiment or turnout expectations.
Resolution follows official certification: if the party or election authority replaces or designates a nominee under applicable rules, the market resolves to the certified nominee; interim uncertainty can increase volatility until authorities clarify the outcome.