| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette Greene-Scott | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Pearl Vuorinen | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $377 | Trade → |
| Sterling Gadison | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $310 | Trade → |
| Robert Thomas | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $205 | Trade → |
| Chris Fernandez | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $205 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will become the Democratic nominee for U.S. House in Texas's 22nd Congressional District. The nominee shapes the general-election matchup in a district that can be important for overall control of the House.
TX-22 covers suburban and exurban communities in the Houston area and has seen shifting partisan dynamics in recent cycles as demographics and turnout patterns evolve. Candidate recruitment, local issues, and the strength of party organization have driven competitive primaries here in recent elections.
Market prices aggregate the views of traders based on public information and expectations; they update as new facts (endorsements, fundraising, polling, withdrawals) arrive and should be read as a real-time snapshot of collective expectations rather than a static prediction.
The market lists discrete outcomes corresponding to specific declared candidates (and sometimes an 'other' or 'no nominee' option); view the active outcome labels on the market page to see which candidates are currently listed and tradable.
Settlement typically occurs when the Democratic Party's official nominee for TX-22 is certified by the relevant authority (party certification, primary result after any required runoffs, or other official designation); the platform's market rules and the market page will state the exact settlement trigger and any cutoff dates.
New entries can be added as tradable outcomes or cause existing prices to adjust; withdrawals usually prompt rapid price reallocation toward remaining candidates and, depending on platform rules, markets may suspend or add an 'other' outcome if a listed candidate exits before settlement.
If the primary produces no majority winner and a runoff is required, final settlement will wait until the runoff produces an official nominee; traders often shift focus to runoff dynamics (head-to-head fundraising, endorsements, and turnout) once the runoff field is set.
Major movers include fundraising reports, high-profile endorsements, official candidate filings or withdrawals, credible local polling or vote tallies, and sudden changes in campaign resources or organizational activity; local media scoops and certification announcements also spur rapid adjustments.