| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Teixeira | 98% | 93¢ | 96¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Daniel Betts | 10% | 2¢ | 6¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Trey Trainor | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Chip Roy | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Robert Lowry | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Zeke Enriquez | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $606 | Trade → |
| Jason Cahill | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $197 | Trade → |
| Michael Wheeler | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $58 | Trade → |
| Kyle Sinclair | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jacques DuBose | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Republican nominee in Texas's 21st Congressional District (TX-21). It matters because the nominee determines the party's general-election contender and can shape competitive dynamics for the seat.
TX-21 is a U.S. House district whose nomination contest follows Texas party-primary procedures; outcomes depend on the field of declared candidates, primary turnout, and any potential runoffs. Local factors such as incumbency status, recent redistricting, and district demographics have shaped past contests and will influence this cycle.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations and move as new information arrives; they are real-time signals rather than fixed predictions. Interpret prices alongside on-the-ground reporting, official filings, and campaign announcements to form a fuller view.
The market's close is listed as TBD on the market page; resolution will follow the exchange's contract terms and typically occurs after the party's official nomination is certified (which may be after a primary and any required runoff). Check the market description and the exchange's rules for the precise resolution trigger.
This market lists 10 outcomes, which generally correspond to specific named candidates and possibly aggregated categories (e.g., 'other' or 'no nominee'). View the market's outcome list on the exchange page to see exact names and definitions.
Treatment of late entries or withdrawals depends on the exchange's contract language; outcomes may remain fixed to the original list, be administratively adjusted, or be resolved based on the official certified nominee. Refer to the market contract and market notices for any administrative decisions.
Key movers include official candidate filings, major endorsements, fundraising reports or FEC filings, precinct-level early-voting returns or turnout projections, debate performances, and legal rulings or sudden withdrawals.
Use the market as a real-time, tradeable synthesis of public information and private views; complement it with local polling, reporting on endorsements and organizing, and campaign finance data. Also consider liquidity and total volume traded (this market shows $30,056 in volume) as context for how much information is being priced in.