| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristin Hook | 95% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Regina Vanburg | 7% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $300 | Trade → |
| Gary Taylor | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $234 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Democratic nominee for Texas's 21st Congressional District. It matters because the nominee will shape the party's chance to win the seat in the general election and influence local campaign dynamics.
TX-21 is a U.S. House district with a mix of urban and suburban communities; its political character has shifted regionally over recent cycles. Candidate quality, party resource allocation, and local issues all interact with broader statewide and national trends to determine who emerges as the nominee.
Prediction market prices reflect trader assessments of which candidate will be certified as the official nominee. Use them as a real-time indicator of market sentiment and how events (endorsements, fundraising, polling, withdrawals) are being incorporated, not as a formal endorsement.
Outcomes correspond to the individual candidates (and any additional outcome listed on the market page). Check the event page for the exact candidate labels; each outcome represents that named person being the official Democratic nominee for TX-21 at resolution.
Resolution follows the event rules and official party/state certification: the market will resolve to the person certified as the Democratic nominee for the general election. If state rules trigger a primary runoff, the market typically waits for the runoff result and subsequent certification.
A candidacy withdrawal can shift market sentiment quickly; the official nominee is determined by voters and party certification. Exchanges follow their posting rules for how substitutions or withdrawn names are treated—check the event page and market rules for specifics on handling changes before official resolution.
Watch candidate debate performances, major endorsements from statewide or local leaders, campaign finance filings showing fundraising momentum, county-level organizing reports, and any legal or ballot-access developments that affect candidacies.
Because Texas can require an additional runoff step if no candidate meets the threshold in the primary, campaigns aim both to build broad first-round coalitions and to preserve resources for a potential head-to-head runoff; that shapes messaging, turnout plans, and endorsement-seeking.