| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Castro | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $367 | Trade → |
| John Atwood | 7% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $64 | Trade → |
| Kendra Wilkerson | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Democratic nominee for Texas's 20th Congressional District. The nominee will determine who represents Democratic voters in the general election and shapes the district's campaign dynamics.
Texas's 20th Congressional District is decided through the state's Democratic primary process, and if no candidate receives a majority in the primary, a runoff election determines the nominee. Local demographics, turnout patterns, and the presence or absence of an incumbent all influence the primary contest. Timing and candidate fields can change as filings, withdrawals, or legal actions occur.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about who will be certified as the official Democratic nominee and will move as new information arrives (endorsements, fundraising, polling, legal outcomes). They are a real-time gauge of how traders interpret events, not a formal certification of the result.
The market's outcomes correspond to the candidate names and any catch-all outcome listed when the market was created; the market will settle according to the platform's stated resolution criteria once the official nominee is certified.
The close date is listed as TBD; the closing time determines how long prices remain tradable and whether late developments (certifications, withdrawals, legal rulings) are reflected before settlement.
Texas primaries require a majority to win outright; if no candidate reaches that threshold, the top two advance to a runoff, which can change dynamics by concentrating support and altering turnout weeks or months after the primary.
Resolution typically follows official certification of the party's nominee — for example, the party's certified primary/runoff results or filings acknowledged by the Texas Secretary of State — and the market platform's published settlement rules.
Watch candidate filing/withdrawal announcements, fundraising reports, major local endorsements, turnout and precinct organization news in San Antonio and surrounding areas, debate performances, and any legal or ballot-access challenges that could alter the field.