| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Green | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Christian Menefee | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Amanda Edwards | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gretchen Brown | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will become the Democratic nominee for Texas's 18th Congressional District; that nominee determines who appears on the general election ballot and influences the district's partisan dynamics.
TX-18 covers portions of Houston and Harris County and has been a Democratic-held district for many election cycles, often shaped by long-serving local incumbents and strong urban voting blocs. The nomination is decided through the Texas Democratic primary process (and a potential runoff if no candidate wins a majority), and local factors—demographics, redistricting, and issue salience—can shift the contest from cycle to cycle.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about which person will be the officially certified Democratic nominee as determined by the primary/runoff and party certification process. Prices change as new information—endorsements, fundraising, polling, or legal developments—arrives.
The market will resolve to the individual officially recognized as the Democratic Party’s nominee for TX-18 by state and party certification processes, regardless of whether the nominee is decided in an initial primary, a runoff, or by other official party procedures.
Texas primaries select party nominees; if no candidate receives a majority, the top two advance to a runoff. The final nominee is not official until after any required runoff and formal certification, so the timeline for resolution depends on those steps.
Resolution follows the officially certified nominee. Withdrawals or disqualifications can change the field and voters’ choices prior to certification; if a certified nominee later withdraws, replacement procedures are governed by party and state rules and market resolution will follow the exchange’s published event rules.
Major shifts usually come from high-profile endorsements, large fundraising announcements or reporting, strong local polling, legal/ballot access rulings, and on-the-ground turnout indicators from early voting or related local contests.
Official primary and runoff results and certifications are published by the Texas Secretary of State and county election offices; the Texas Democratic Party posts certification details. Local news outlets, campaign filings (finance reports), and official candidate statements provide timely context and developments.