| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Escobar | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $200 | Trade → |
| Arturo Andujo | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $100 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Democratic nominee for Texas's 16th congressional district. The result matters because the nominee determines the Democratic challenger in the general election and influences fundraising, endorsements, and campaign strategy.
The Democratic nominee for TX-16 is chosen through the state's primary process and, if no candidate receives a majority, a runoff. Local demographics, recent officeholders, and any redistricting or boundary changes shape the dynamics of the contest and who competitive candidates are.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations and update as news arrives; they are a real-time signal of perceived likelihood, not a guarantee. Treat market moves as one input alongside polls, fundraising, and on-the-ground reporting.
The market resolves to the candidate who is certified as the Democratic nominee for Texas's 16th congressional district by the relevant election authorities (including the result of any runoff if applicable). Check the exchange's resolution rules for the precise certification source used.
This market has two outcomes; each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate listed on the KALSHI event page. See KALSHI's event description to view the exact candidate names tied to each outcome.
The event currently lists the market closing as TBD. KALSHI will set the official close time, which is often tied to the primary date and any subsequent runoff certification—monitor the KALSHI page for updates.
The $300 volume traded indicates the cumulative amount of money that has changed hands in this market so far; lower volume generally means thinner liquidity, so prices may be more sensitive to individual trades and can move more on new information.
If no primary candidate receives a majority, Texas law triggers a runoff between the top two vote-getters; the market may remain open through the runoff and will resolve to the eventual certified nominee. Contested results or delayed certifications can postpone settlement—refer to KALSHI's policies for how disputes, recounts, or delays are handled.