| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Pulido | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Ada Cuellar | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Democratic nominee for Texas's 15th Congressional District. The nominee shapes the Democratic ticket for the district and influences general-election strategy and resource allocation.
The district's partisan balance and voter composition have been affected by recent redistricting cycles and local demographic trends, making the primary outcome consequential for competitiveness in the general election. Local issues, party organization, and turnout patterns in the district have historically been important in determining who wins the nomination.
Market prices represent the crowd's current assessment of which individual will be the official Democratic nominee as ultimately certified by state and party authorities. Prices update as new information (endorsements, fundraising, withdrawals, legal rulings, etc.) becomes available and are not guarantees of the eventual result.
The market resolves to the individual who is the officially recognized Democratic nominee for TX-15 as determined through the party's primary/runoff process and certified by the relevant election authorities and party officials.
The market's close date is set on the trading platform (currently listed as TBD). Resolution will follow the official party and state certification of the nominee after the primary and any required runoff.
If the Democratic primary in TX-15 requires a runoff under state rules, the market will typically remain open and resolve only after the runoff produces a certified nominee; bettors should expect prices to react to both primary and runoff outcomes.
The market outcome depends on the officially certified nominee. If a candidate withdraws or is removed before certification, traders will reassess and prices will adjust; the market will still resolve to whoever is officially designated by the party/election authorities.
Major movers include announced endorsements, significant fundraising reports, internal polling or public polls focused on TX-15, official candidate withdrawals or entries, legal challenges to ballot access, and changes to district boundaries.