| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chasity Wedgeworth | 60% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $251 | Trade → |
| Ronny Jackson | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $249 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Republican nominee in Texas's 13th Congressional District. The result matters because the district has trended strongly Republican, so the primary winner often becomes the district's de facto representative in the general election.
Texas's 13th District covers a large, mostly rural area with an economy centered on agriculture and energy; those local dynamics shape candidate messaging and voter priorities. Nomination is determined by the state and county-level Republican primary process; if no candidate achieves the required vote threshold in the primary, a runoff is used to pick the nominee.
Market prices reflect traders' collective assessment of which candidate will become the official Republican nominee and update as new information (polls, filings, endorsements, vote returns) arrives. Treat the market as a dynamic signal that changes with filings, campaign activity, and actual vote counts rather than a fixed prediction.
The nominee is the individual who becomes the officially certified Republican nominee for the U.S. House in Texas's 13th District according to Texas election authorities; this typically follows the primary and, if needed, any runoff and certification processes.
Under Texas rules a primary without a majority typically leads to a runoff between the top two vote-getters; the runoff winner becomes the party nominee once official returns are certified, and the market will settle based on that certified result.
Official candidate filings are posted by the Texas Secretary of State and by county election offices; the market's event page and reputable local news outlets also track updated candidate lists and withdrawals.
The market follows official certification procedures: provisional counts, canvassing, and any runoff results must be resolved before a final certified nominee is declared; settlement timing depends on when those official steps are completed.
Track candidate filings and withdrawals, county-level primary returns and turnout, major local and statewide endorsements, fundraising reports, key policy positions on agriculture and energy, and local news on campaign organizing and events.