| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Ruiz | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Claire Reynolds | 98% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $795 | Trade → |
This market asks which person will be the Democratic nominee in Texas's 11th Congressional District for the upcoming election cycle. It matters because the nominee becomes the party’s candidate in the general election and shapes the contest for that seat.
Texas's 11th is a geographically large district with a mix of urban and rural communities; local demographics, economic issues, and turnout patterns shape primary contests there. Texas uses partisan primaries (with runoffs if no candidate wins a majority), so the nominee is determined through that state-managed process and party certification.
Prices in this prediction market reflect traders’ aggregated beliefs about who will be the certified Democratic nominee and update as new information arrives. They are not guarantees but provide a continuously updated market view that reacts to filings, endorsements, polls, and legal developments.
The market will resolve to the individual officially recognized as the Democratic Party nominee for Texas's 11th Congressional District for the relevant election cycle—typically the candidate certified by the state or party after the primary and any required runoff.
Resolution timing follows the state certification of the primary/runoff results; the market operator will update the close/resolution date when that calendar is clear. If certification is delayed by recounts or litigation, settlement may be delayed until official certification.
In Texas, if no primary candidate receives a majority, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff; the nominee is the winner of the primary or runoff once results are certified. That means the market may react to both primary and runoff outcomes and interim developments between them.
Volume is a measure of how much money has moved through the market and indicates trader interest and liquidity; higher volume typically means prices incorporate more information, while low volume can make prices more sensitive to individual trades.
Such events can materially change market prices; the market will resolve according to the operator’s rules—usually based on official certification. Check the specific contract terms for handling withdrawals, substitutions, or candidates removed from the ballot.