| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Gober | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Rob Altman | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Jessica Karlsruher | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Ben Bius | 4% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Brandon Hawbaker | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $208 | Trade → |
| Scott MacLeod | 5% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $175 | Trade → |
| Jenny Garcia Sharon | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $120 | Trade → |
| Rob Brown | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $105 | Trade → |
| Jeremy Story | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $105 | Trade → |
| Kara King | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $100 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will become the Republican nominee for Texas's 10th Congressional District (TX-10). The outcome matters for the general election matchup and for understanding intra-party dynamics in a district that has been politically significant in recent cycles.
TX-10 is a U.S. House district in Texas; in recent cycles it has typically been contested by Republican candidates in the primary and general election. Primary contests for this seat can reflect broader trends within the state party, including establishment-versus-insurgent dynamics, fundraising strength, and local turnout patterns. Open-seat races or challenges to incumbents tend to attract multiple contenders and can lead to runoffs under Texas election rules.
Market odds aggregate traders' information and expectations about which candidate will be certified as the Republican nominee; they update as news, polling, fundraising, and vote returns come in. Treat odds as a real-time, quantitative summary of market sentiment, not a guarantee of outcome.
It will settle on the individual who is officially recognized and certified as the Republican nominee for Texas's 10th Congressional District for the relevant election cycle, following state certification procedures. Settlement timing follows the platform's rules once the nominee is certified or legally determined.
This market lists ten possible outcomes, typically representing the leading declared or listed candidates. Each outcome corresponds to a candidate who could become the certified Republican nominee; only the outcome matching the certified nominee will resolve as winning.
The market's official close time is TBD and may be set by the platform to align with certification events. If a runoff or delayed certification is required under Texas rules, the market will generally remain open or defer settlement until the nominee is officially determined according to the platform's resolution policy.
Traders should account for the runoff possibility by following county-level results, historical runoff turnout patterns, and endorsements that could shift between the primary and runoff. The market will resolve to the runoff winner if a runoff is required and that winner is later certified.
Useful sources include official Texas Secretary of State filings and certification notices, local and statewide primary polling, campaign finance reports, reporting on endorsements and ground operations in key counties, and real-time primary and runoff vote counts as they are released.