| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Ivey | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Terry Virts | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Leticia Gutierrez | 20% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Marty Rocha | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
| Peter Filler | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
| Earnest Clayton | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Democratic nominee in Texas's 9th Congressional District (TX-09). It matters because the nominee determines who the party will run in the general election and can shift the district's competitiveness.
TX-09 is a U.S. House district in Texas with its own local political dynamics shaped by demographics, turnout patterns, and local party infrastructure. Nomination contests in the district can be affected by incumbency decisions, retirements, redistricting, and intra-party endorsements, and outcomes here feed into broader control and messaging for both parties.
Market odds aggregate traders' assessments of who will become the nominee and update as new information arrives; treat them as a snapshot of market sentiment rather than a fixed forecast, and monitor changes over time as events unfold.
The market closure is listed as TBD; the real-world nomination timeline depends on whether the seat is decided via a scheduled primary, runoff, or special election. Check the market page for closure updates and the Texas Secretary of State or county election offices for official nomination dates and filing windows.
Each named outcome maps to a specific candidate appearing on the market; there may also be outcomes for 'other' or procedural results. Consult the market's outcome labels to see which candidate names or categories are being traded and how they align with ballots or certification rules.
The market lists the candidate names and any additional outcome categories on its outcome tab; use that list to identify who the market is evaluating rather than relying on external summaries that may be outdated.
Key movers include formal campaign announcements or withdrawals, major endorsements, published local polls, fundraising reports, legal developments affecting candidacies, and shifts in national political environment that change resource allocation or strategic priorities.
Treat the market as a real-time aggregator of trader expectations and combine it with local reporting, official election calendars, campaign finance filings, and public polling for a fuller picture; also consider market liquidity and volume when interpreting price movements.