| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Fallon | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $290 | Trade → |
| Don Horn | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $30 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be the Republican nominee for Texas's 4th Congressional District (TX-04). It matters because the nominee determines the GOP's candidate on the general-election ballot and shapes competitive dynamics in the district.
TX-04 is a U.S. House district in northeastern Texas that blends suburban and rural communities; its partisan lean and local dynamics shape how contested the Republican nomination becomes. Historically, Republican nominees in this district have been favored in general elections, but primary contests can be competitive and sometimes lead to runoffs. The nomination process follows Texas election law and party certification procedures for primaries and any required runoffs.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about which candidate will secure the party's nomination and update as new information arrives. Use price moves alongside official filings, endorsements, and certified results to interpret shifts in market sentiment.
The nominee is determined by the outcome of the Texas Republican primary for the 4th Congressional District; if no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between the top two vote-getters decides the nominee, and the officially certified winner becomes the party's nominee.
This market settles based on the officially certified Republican nominee for TX-04 as recorded by Texas election officials and relevant county party certifications; the contract follows the party/state certification that identifies the nominee.
If the primary produces no majority winner and a runoff is required, the market remains unresolved until the runoff produces an officially certified nominee; trading activity typically reflects runoff campaigns and late developments between the primary and runoff.
Official withdrawals or disqualifications change the field that voters choose from and generally move the market as traders reassess the likely nominee; ultimately, settlement follows the final certification, so interim legal disputes or appeals are reflected only once resolved in certification.
Key movers include major endorsements from influential local or state figures, fundraising and campaign finance disclosures, credible district-level polling or turnout signals, late-breaking legal actions or scandals that affect a candidate's status, and any formal changes to district filing lists or ballot access.