| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Pearce | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Andrew Rubell | 12% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $467 | Trade → |
This market asks which person will be the Democratic nominee for Texas's 4th Congressional District. The nominee determines who will represent the Democratic Party on the ballot in the general election and shapes local campaign dynamics.
Texas's 4th District has recent history and demographics that shape how competitive a Democratic nominee can be; local factors, candidate recruitment, and national trends all matter. The party nomination is decided through Texas's primary and, if required, runoff process, after which the winner becomes the official Democratic nominee for the district.
Market prices aggregate traders' assessments of who will become the certified Democratic nominee for TX-04; they update as new information arrives (filings, endorsements, fundraising, polls, withdrawals). Interpret prices as real-time signals of market belief about the nomination outcome, not as guarantees.
The market resolves to whoever is officially designated as the Democratic Party nominee for Texas's 4th Congressional District following the state party/official election certification process (after the primary and any required runoff).
The close date is listed as TBD; resolution will occur after the Democratic nominee for TX-04 is officially determined and certified under Texas nomination procedures (primary and any runoff). Check the market page for the final resolution announcement.
Texas primary rules can require a majority to avoid a runoff; if no candidate reaches that threshold the top two advance to a runoff, extending the nomination timeline and creating a second decisive contest that the market will reflect.
The market will be resolved based on the official nominee as certified by the relevant authorities; if the party replaces a nominee before certification, the replacement who is officially designated will be the basis for resolution.
This market has modest trading volume and two outcomes, so prices may move more sharply on new information and reflect the specific binary framing chosen by the market creator; treat prices as timely signals but be aware of greater potential volatility and limited liquidity.