| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 35 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the volume or status of maritime traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz during the designated weekly window. As a vital chokepoint for global energy markets, fluctuations in traffic levels can significantly impact international trade and geopolitical stability.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil transit chokepoint, with a substantial portion of global petroleum and liquefied natural gas passing through its narrow channel daily. Tensions between Iran and international naval coalitions often center on this region, making it a focal point for observers tracking supply chain disruptions and military posturing.
Market participants aggregate information regarding tanker tracking data, regional geopolitical developments, and maritime security advisories to forecast the flow of transit vessels.
This market covers maritime traffic activity occurring strictly between March 30 and April 5.
Traffic is typically evaluated based on verified vessel transit data, tracking the number of commercial tankers and cargo ships successfully traversing the Strait.
Significant disruptions, such as vessel seizures, military blockades, or safety incidents, would likely be the primary drivers for a shift in the market outcome.
The market considers the total volume of traffic passing through the chokepoint; definitions are generally consistent with maritime monitoring standards for the region.
Outcomes are determined based on credible maritime intelligence reports, AIS (Automatic Identification System) tracking data, and official reporting from regional maritime authorities.