| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 35 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how commercial and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz behaved during March 23–29; outcomes reflect different transit levels or events in that specific week and matter because the strait is a major oil and shipping chokepoint whose activity affects energy markets and regional stability.
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and world markets; a large share of seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas transits this corridor. Past years have seen episodes of naval confrontation, sanctions-driven rerouting, and short-term port or shipping disruptions, so week-to-week traffic can move abruptly in response to security incidents, policy shifts, or commercial decisions.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about which of the listed outcomes will apply to the March 23–29 period; use those prices as one indicator alongside direct shipping and official data rather than as definitive predictions.
The event refers to vessel transits and related navigational activity in the strait during the 00:00 to 23:59 dates of March 23–29 (local time or as defined in the event rules); resolution is based on the outcome definitions and the observable shipping metrics or incidents specified by the market's resolution criteria.
Traders commonly monitor AIS and tanker-tracking platforms for transit counts and course changes, maritime intelligence reports, port authority or customs statements, naval press releases, and satellite imagery providers for corroborating evidence during that week.
An incident that causes vessel detentions, forced port closures, or widespread rerouting on March 25 could reduce or alter recorded transits for the week; the market outcome will depend on the incident's scale and duration and whether it meets the event's predefined thresholds for particular outcomes.
Immediate administrative orders (e.g., port closures or embargoes) can affect traffic within days, but many commercial booking and routing decisions are already in motion, so the observable impact during March 24–29 depends on how quickly carriers and terminals adjust operations.
Resolution will follow the market's official rules and listed authoritative sources for the event; in cases of conflicting or missing data the operator typically uses the primary designated sources, cross-checked satellite and AIS records, and published adjudication procedures to determine which outcome applies.