| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-opus-4-6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| claude-opus-4-6-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3-pro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| grok-4.20-beta1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3-flash | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| dola-seed-2.0-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| qwen3.5-max-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| kimi-k2.5-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gpt-5.4-high | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named AI model will be judged the 'Top AI model this week' among ten listed outcomes on the KALSHI platform. It matters because weekly shifts in which model leads reflect fast-moving technical progress, deployment patterns, and market sentiment in AI.
Weekly head-to-head comparisons among models capture a combination of new releases, benchmark results, and adoption in real deployments; leadership can change rapidly as vendors push updates or integrations. Historically, short windows favor models with recent public demonstrations, strong developer uptake, or prominent platform partnerships, so outcomes often track transient events as much as long-term technical superiority.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations about which named model will meet the event's settlement criteria by the closing time; they update as news, usage data, and evaluations arrive but do not guarantee an outcome. Always consult the event's official settlement rules to understand the exact metric that will determine the winner.
Settlement is governed by the event's specific rules on KALSHI; the platform will use the published definition for 'top' (for example a named ranking source, traffic metric, or vote) and any tie-breaker procedures. Check the event description and official settlement terms to see which third-party data or metric will be used.
The ten outcomes correspond to ten specific named AI models listed in the contract; whether names can be added or changed depends on the market design and KALSHI's policies. Generally, outcome lists are fixed once trading begins, so review the listed names before participating.
TBD indicates the official closing timestamp has not yet been set by the market organizer; trading and odds may remain open until a close is announced, and the settlement period will be defined at that time. Monitor the event page and platform notices for the confirmed close and any updates to the measurement window.
A major mid-week update can rapidly shift usage, benchmarks, and public perception, which in turn changes market prices; the eventual winner will be whichever model meets the event's stated settlement metric at the close, so late updates can materially affect that measured metric and traders' expectations.
KALSHI will rely on the data source(s) specified in the event rules—common sources include official provider telemetry, independent benchmark organizers, major platform ranking pages, or designated third-party aggregators. Confirm the named source in the event documentation to understand how the winner will be identified.