| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gpt-5.4-high | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3-pro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| grok-4.20-beta1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ernie-5.0-0110 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| kimi-k2.5-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| dola-seed-2.0-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3-flash | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| claude-opus-4-6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| claude-opus-4-6-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which AI model will be judged the "top" model during the specified week among ten listed outcomes on KALSHI. It matters because it aggregates real-time market views about short-term leadership in a fast-moving AI field.
Short-interval markets like this capture week-to-week swings driven by model releases, benchmark results, adoption news, and viral demos. The AI landscape has frequent incremental and headline events (new checkpoints, major integrations, uptime incidents) that can rapidly change which model is perceived as leading.
Market prices on this event represent the aggregated expectations of traders about which listed outcome will be declared top under the market's resolution criteria; they update as participants incorporate new information and should be used as a signal, not definitive proof.
It asks traders to pick which one of the ten named outcomes will be declared the top model for the week according to the market's official resolution criteria; the market page contains the precise metric or source that will be used to determine the winner.
'Closes: TBD' indicates the closing time has not been set on the event page; the exact start/end window and close timestamp will be listed on the KALSHI event page once finalized, so monitor that page for updates.
The ten outcomes are the specific model names or labels provided on this market's outcome list; outcome naming and the exact roster are defined by the event creator and visible on the market page prior to trading.
Resolution procedures—including tie-break rules and the authoritative data source—are specified in the event's resolution statement on KALSHI; if multiple models meet the criteria simultaneously, the event's official rules will describe whether a co-winner is declared or another tie-breaking mechanism is applied.
Track official model release notes, benchmark publications, platform integration announcements, usage and uptime reports, major news coverage and social/developer community reactions, and any statements from the organizations behind the candidate models.