| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-opus-4-6-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3-pro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gpt-5.2-chat-latest-20260210 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| claude-opus-4-6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| grok-4.20-beta1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3-flash | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ernie-5.0-0110 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| dola-seed-2.0-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| kimi-k2.5-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named AI model will be considered the "top" model over the coming week on the platform. It matters because weekly leadership in usage, attention, or performance can signal short-term shifts in developer and customer preferences in the fast-moving AI landscape.
The AI model ecosystem is competitive and changes rapidly as companies release updates, new capabilities, pricing changes, or integrations. Weekly leadership can be driven by product launches, high-profile demos, outages, or enterprise deals, and has become a frequent focus for traders tracking momentum and news flow. Historical weeks have been influenced as much by viral demos and commercial availability as by formal benchmark results.
Prediction market prices reflect collective expectations about which named outcome will be seen as the week's top model at settlement; interpret price movements as real-time signals about shifting market consensus rather than definitive measures of technical superiority.
It refers to which named outcome on this Kalshi event is judged the week's leading model under the platform's resolution criteria; consult the market page for the precise resolution definition and any tie-break rules the exchange uses.
The event's close time is listed as TBD, so the official close and resolution will be announced on the market page; resolution typically follows the end of the specified observation period and any platform-specified verification window.
Watch vendor release notes and changelogs, major benchmark or comparison posts, social-media viral demos, outage reports and status pages, and announcements of enterprise deals or integrations—all of which can rapidly change perceptions of which model is "top."
Prepare for heightened volatility by using limit orders, sizing positions to account for rapid swings, monitoring official vendor channels for validated information, and being ready to hedge across multiple outcomes if liquidity allows.
Yes—multiple outcomes can fragment liquidity and produce more frequent re-ranking, so traders should consider cross-outcome impacts, the cost of moving price across many options, and use hedging strategies to manage exposure to event-driven reversals.