| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-opus-4-6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| claude-opus-4-6-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3-pro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| grok-4.20-beta1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gemini-3-flash | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| dola-seed-2.0-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| qwen3.5-max-preview | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| kimi-k2.5-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| gpt-5.4-high | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| muse-spark | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| claude-opus-4-7-thinking | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which Artificial Intelligence model holds the top position in industry-standard rankings for the current week. It provides a real-time pulse on the rapidly evolving landscape of generative AI performance.
The AI sector experiences near-weekly updates, with major labs like OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Meta frequently releasing model iterations, fine-tunes, or new architectures. These performance shifts are typically captured by crowd-sourced leaderboards that evaluate models on coding, reasoning, and linguistic capabilities.
Market positions reflect the collective belief of participants regarding which model will be formally recognized as the industry leader by the close of the trading period.
The market typically relies on widely recognized industry leaderboards, such as the LMSYS Chatbot Arena ELO rankings, which aggregate large-scale, crowdsourced human evaluations.
Due to the intense competitive nature of AI development, the top position can shift frequently, sometimes within a matter of days following a major model release.
The market focuses on general-purpose Large Language Models (LLMs) that are evaluated on broad reasoning and creative tasks, rather than niche or domain-specific tools.
The resolution relies on the official, final standing of the primary leaderboard data source at the market's close, ensuring transparency regarding how the winner is determined.
No, market outcomes are driven by verifiable, independent performance data rather than unverified marketing claims or internal corporate press releases.