| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bexar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hays | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tarrant | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Denton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Harris | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dallas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hidalgo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This KALSHI market asks which counties Paxton will win in the Texas Senate primary; county-level outcomes matter because they reveal geographic strengths and can change campaign momentum. The market lists eight mutually exclusive outcomes and currently shows active trading, with the close date marked as TBD.
County results in Texas primaries typically reflect sharp urban–suburban–rural divides, local turnout patterns, and county-specific political networks. Paxton has run and won statewide contests before, giving him name recognition, but county-by-county performance can vary with local endorsements, ballot contests, and ground operations. Historical county-level trends and early-vote returns often shape expectations before final certification.
Prediction market prices aggregate trader expectations and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time consensus signal rather than a definitive prediction. Watch price movements and trading volume alongside official returns and local news to interpret how the market is incorporating fresh information.
Resolution will follow the market's stated rules and the official county-level results published and certified by Texas election authorities; because the market close date is listed as TBD, check the KALSHI platform for the official close and resolution timeline.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a specific combination or list of counties that Paxton could carry as defined by the market creator; only the outcome matching the official county winners will resolve as the winner.
The winning outcome will be the one whose county combination matches the final, official county winners reported and certified by Texas election authorities and applied according to the platform's resolution rules.
Yes—final resolution uses certified results per state authorities and the platform's rules; if county results change during certification or recounts, the market will resolve based on the final certified outcomes and the platform's stated timeline.
Track county-level vote tallies and early-vote returns, county election office updates, Texas Secretary of State releases, credible local media reporting, campaign announcements about visits or endorsements, and price and volume movement on the KALSHI market as a real-time signal of shifting expectations.