| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bexar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dallas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tarrant | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Travis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| El Paso | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks which specific Texas counties Attorney General Ken Paxton’s endorsed candidates or his influence will carry in a Republican Senate runoff. It serves as a gauge for Paxton’s reach and political capital within the Texas GOP base.
Ken Paxton has become a significant power broker in Texas politics, frequently endorsing challengers against incumbent Republicans he deems insufficiently conservative. These runoffs often highlight the ideological divide between the grassroots movement aligned with Paxton and the more traditional party establishment. The geographic distribution of his wins reveals where his brand of populism maintains the strongest regional support.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders regarding Paxton's electoral strength across different regions, reflecting voter trends and local political sentiment.
A win is defined by the specific candidates backed by Paxton emerging victorious in the designated counties during the runoff election.
The market tracks results on a per-county basis, meaning different outcomes are evaluated based on the official final tallies reported by the Texas Secretary of State for each specific county.
The market is settled based on the official certified election results; if an election is voided or not held, the market may default to specific resolution rules outlined by the exchange.
This market focuses on a selection of high-profile or representative counties that serve as barometers for Paxton's influence across Texas.
The outcomes indicate the shifting ideological composition of the state legislature, as these runoffs often determine which candidate moves on to the general election against a Democratic opponent.