| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn, 5-10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ken Paxton, 5-10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Cornyn, 10-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ken Paxton, 10-15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Cornyn, 20%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ken Paxton, 20%+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ken Paxton, 0-5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Cornyn, 0-5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Cornyn, 15-20% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ken Paxton, 15-20% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how large the margin of victory will be in the Texas Republican Senate runoff, allowing traders to express expectations about how close the contest will finish. The margin matters because it shapes narratives about party strength, candidate mandates, and strategic decisions for future races.
If no candidate in a Texas primary wins a majority, state rules require a runoff between the top two finishers; those runoffs often see lower, more motivated turnout than the initial primary. Historical runoff outcomes in Texas reflect differences in turnout dynamics, regional voting patterns, and the ability of campaigns to consolidate support between the primary and the runoff.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about the eventual official margin but should be read alongside fundamentals such as turnout models, endorsements, and county reporting patterns.
The market close is listed as TBD and will be set by the exchange when the runoff date and the market's resolution timetable are finalized; the exchange will post an official close and resolution schedule once determined.
The margin is determined by the difference between the runoff winner and the runner-up as measured in the official results used for resolution; check the market's rule text to see whether outcomes are framed in percentage-point ranges or absolute vote margins.
Resolution will rely on the official, certified election results reported by Texas election authorities, which are compiled from county canvasses and any subsequent statewide certification processes.
Early returns can be unrepresentative because reporting order varies by county and precinct type; consider the mix of urban versus rural precincts reporting early, absentee/early vote composition, and historical reporting patterns for each county.
If recounts or legal challenges alter the final certified result, the market will resolve to the final certified margin after those processes conclude according to the exchange's resolution rules, which can lead to delayed settlement.